The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday released its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) update, revising Nigeria’s real GDP growth forecast for 2025 up to 3.4 percent, marking a clear upgrade from the 3.0 percent projection published in its April 2025 outlook during the Spring Meetings.
This upgraded 3.4 percent outlook ,though below Sub-Saharan Africa’s 4.0 percent projection, places Nigeria comfortably above the IMF’s global average growth forecast for 2025, which now stands at 3.0 percent – lower than both the 2024 figure at 3.3 percent and 2026, put at 3.1 percent.
The revision reflects a recalibration of risks and optimism amid improving domestic reforms.
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IMF officials attributed the upward revision to Nigeria’s a series of macroeconomic reforms, including fuel subsidy removal, foreign exchange unification, cessation of central bank financing of deficits, and the commissioning of a domestic oil refinery.
Services and oil output gains are cited as key drivers of momentum, while agriculture still faces headwinds from security bottlenecks.
The IMF, however, underscores Nigeria’s vulnerability to continued low oil prices-currently trading below the budget benchmark–and high inflation pressures.
Looking ahead, the IMF projects Nigeria’s 2026 growth to hover around 3.2 percent, on possible sustained global headwinds.
The IMF said its global growth projection at 3.0 percent for 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026, which is an upward revision from April, reflects front-loading ahead of tariffs, lower effective tariff rates, better financial conditions, and fiscal expansion in some major jurisdictions.
“The global economy is proving resilient, supported by activity brought forward ahead of tariff hikes, lower-than-expected US tariffs, improved financial conditions & fiscal expansion. But this resilience is tenuous and the outlook is still clouded by downside risks.”
Global inflation is expected to fall, but US inflation is predicted to stay above target.
“Downside risks from potentially higher tariffs, elevated uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions persist.
“Restoring confidence, predictability, and sustainability remains a key policy priority,” the fund noted.
In emerging market and developing economies, IMF sees growth at 4.1 percent in 2025 and 4.0 percent in 2026.
Relative to the forecast in April, growth in 2025 for China is revised upward by 0.8 percentage point to 4.8 percent.
This revision, it noted, reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the first half of 2025 and the significant reduction in US China tariffs.
“A recovery in inventory accumulation is expected to partly offset payback from front-loading in the second half of 2025. Growth in 2026 is also revised upward by 0.2 percentage point to 4.2 percent, again reflecting the lower effective tariff rates.”
In Sub-Saharan Africa, growth is expected to be relatively stable at 4.0 percent in 2025, before picking up to 4.3 percent in 2026.
Nigeria has retained its status as the fourth-largest economy in Africa despite a rebasing exercise that expanded the country’s gross domestic product (GDP).
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) last week announced that the economy expanded to N372.8 trillion ($243 billion) in 2024, down from N314.02 trillion in the prior year, as more sectors in the informal economy were accommodated in its calculations.
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Despite the overhaul, Nigeria fails to reclaim its erstwhile status as the largest economy in Africa.
In naira terms, the sizes of the Nigerian economy stood at N205.09 trillion in 2019, N213.64 trillion in 2020, N243.30 trillion in 2021, N274.23 trillion in 2022, N314.02 trillion in 2023, and N372.82 trillion in 2024.
However, in dollar terms, which are critical for global comparisons, Nigeria’s GDP declined from $672.426 billion in 2019 to $254.5 billion in 2024.
With this, Nigeria remains Africa’s fourth largest economy behind South Africa, Egypt and Algeria.
