Nigeria’s economy is projected to grow above five per cent in 2026, driven by oil and gas reforms and improving macroeconomic stability, CFG Advisory CEO, Tilewa Adebajo, said.
Adebajo made the projection on Tuesday at the Finance Correspondents Association of Nigeria’s 2026 Economic Outlook in Lagos.
The outlook exceeds the International Monetary Fund’s 4.4 per cent and the Central Bank of Nigeria’s 4.49 per cent growth forecasts for 2026.
He expressed cautious optimism, saying reforms had stabilised the economy, but warned that “the real challenge is converting stability into sustainable, inclusive growth”.
Adebajo said Nigeria’s reform agenda lacked clarity, noting that tax reforms were “less critical than deeper fiscal reforms needed to drive productivity”.
He said domestic and foreign investments remained at historic lows, with foreign direct investment below five per cent over the past decade.
According to him, weak industrial development, declining manufacturing and absence of a coherent industrial policy continue to constrain growth.
In spite of challenges, he said Nigeria retained strong potential, citing an informal sachet economy valued between 30 and 40 billion dollars annually.
On public finance, Adebajo described Nigeria’s roughly 100 billion dollar debt as unsustainable, with revenues largely consumed by debt servicing.
He noted that the 2026 debt service provision of N15.52 trillion exceeds combined allocations to security, defence, education and health.
Adebajo urged urgent asset sales and privatisation, especially in oil and gas, to raise 15 to 50 billion dollars for debt restructuring.
He also called for restructuring opaque oil contracts and recapitalising NNPC Ltd. to improve transparency, reduce borrowing costs and boost output.
While acknowledging improved oil activity, he warned that interest rates around 35 per cent were stifling credit, consumption and economic activity.
He projected single-digit inflation, easing interest rates near 20 per cent and relative naira stability, “if reforms and political will are sustained”.
Adebajo warned that reform fatigue, rising debt and weak growth could undermine stability unless urgent corrective measures are taken.
