Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, a former special adviser on political affairs in the office of the vice-president, has warned that the African Democratic Congress (ADC) risks internal collapse if Atiku Abubakar, a former Vice-President, secures the party’s presidential ticket ahead of the 2027 general elections, arguing that a bruising contest for the nomination could trigger mass defections.
Speaking on Tuesday during an interview on Politics Today, Baba-Ahmed said Atiku is strongly positioned to emerge as the ADC’s flagbearer if the party proceeds with a national convention, but added that such an outcome could come at a steep cost to party cohesion. According to him, many of the party’s leading figures are driven by the same ambition to clinch the presidential ticket making a consensus outcome unlikely.
“If ADC goes to convention, and it certainly will, because that’s what former Vice-President Atiku wants, he will get the ticket,” Baba-Ahmed said. “And then, a lot of people will walk out because a lot of people are in that party only for the same thing. They want the ticket.”
He argued that the ADC has become a crowded platform for high-profile politicians nursing presidential ambitions, creating a volatile mix that could unravel once a single candidate emerges. Baba-Ahmed said the party’s current appeal lies largely in its openness and the perception that no single aspirant has an automatic advantage, a balance he believes would be disrupted by a convention dominated by Atiku.
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Baba-Ahmed also pointed to the expectations surrounding Peter Obi, the former governor of Anambra state, as another potential fault line within the party. He said Obi’s supporters increasingly see him as a natural standard-bearer rather than a contender in a competitive primary process, a stance that could heighten tensions if the ADC insists on a convention.
“One of the reasons Peter Obi is saying, ‘Look at me, I’m not here for number two, I’m not here for convention, I’m here to fly the flag,’ is that he has people who were initially whispering politely to him,” Baba-Ahmed said. “But now they are saying, ‘Join the queue. You’re not the only one with ambition here.’”
According to Baba-Ahmed, Obi is more accustomed to political arrangements that elevate him as a consensus candidate rather than forcing him to battle rivals at a national convention. He suggested that this difference in political style and expectation could deepen internal fractures if Obi feels sidelined or outmaneuvered in a crowded field.
“Peter Obi doesn’t do convention,” he said, adding that the ADC’s insistence on a formal nomination process could alienate key figures and their supporters.
Baba-Ahmed warned that the aftermath of a convention, rather than the event itself, poses the greatest risk to the party. He predicted that if Atiku wins the ticket, as he expects, the ADC could suffer significant damage from defections by aggrieved aspirants and factions unwilling to accept the outcome.
“The ADC will bleed after its convention because almost certainly former Vice-President Atiku will win the ticket,” he said. “And when he does, some people will walk out. It will be severely damaged.”
His comments come amid growing realignments ahead of the 2027 elections, as opposition figures weigh platforms and alliances capable of challenging the ruling party. For the ADC, Baba-Ahmed’s warning underscores the challenge of managing big ambitions without tearing the party apart.
