The African Export and Import Bank, Afreximbank, says receipts from Nigeria’s non-oil exports could rise 40 percent to N13 trillion by the end of 2026, supported by the country’s manufacturing and industrial sectors.
The bank is betting on Nigeria meeting foreign demand for “agro-processed goods, cement, manufactured consumer products, and petrochemical derivatives,” backed by a “competitive exchange rate as well as improved market access under the African Continental Free Trade Agreement, AfCFTA”
In Lagos on Thursday, Yemi Kale, chief economist at the bank, presented the report at the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry 2026 economic outlook.
Read also: Nigeria’s diversification drive pays off as non-oil exports rise 11.5% to $6.1bn in 2025 – NEPC
Non-oil exports in 2025 rose over 11 percent to $6.1 billion, according to an announcement by the Nigeria Export Promotion Council, NEPC on Monday.
Earnings rose on the back of increased supply of agricultural commodities, processed and semi-processed goods, industrial inputs, and solid minerals, said Nonye Ayeni, executive director of the NEPC.
Afrexeimbank’s projection comes even as the bank expects the country’s economy to expand 4.2 percent in 2026 primarily driven by “telecommunications, agriculture, and construction,” including a strong services momentum and infrastructure rollout.
But Nigeria must sustain current reforms to sustain momentum, the bank says. “This depends on sustaining current reforms, and continued infrastructure investments,” Kale said, adding that “deliberate competitiveness policies and strategies need to be introduced.”
Read also: Non-oil sector drives Nigeria’s economic expansion by 3.98%
Nigeria must also take trade with Africa more seriously and tap into the “opportunity to diverse its trade.” “Even a modest increase in Nigeria’s flow of exports to Africa will translate to billions of dollars in additional export earnings,” Kale said.
Afreximbank projected services exports to exceed $2 billion led by fintech, ICT service, creative industries, telecoms, and professional services expanding into African markets.
It said the prioritisation AfCFTA could also dam the effects of global economic disruptions after geopolitical tensions have seen prices spiral out of predictability.
“Its full implementation can more than double intra-African trade by 2025, with manufacturing accounting for the bulk of that increase,” he said. “If Nigeria becomes more competitive it stands to be one of the largest beneficiaries.”
