Nigeria’s democratic institutions are coming under growing strain as political actors shift focus from governance to early positioning ahead of the 2027 general elections, according to Samson Itodo, executive director of YIAGA Africa.
Itodo said rising elite bargaining, premature campaigns and shifting political alliances are already shaping the political environment, despite the fact that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has not lifted the ban on electioneering.
He disclosed this in a statement on Tuesday, noting that the trend reflects a recurring pattern in Nigeria’s election cycle, where governance slows as electoral ambition takes centre stage.
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Political activities linked to the next polls, he said, began shortly after the 2023 elections.
According to him, this signals weak accountability and entrenched impunity that could undermine the credibility of the 2027 vote.
He further stated that INEC faces an early test in 2026, with three key elections scheduled. These include the Federal Capital Territory Area Council polls and the governorship elections in Ekiti and Osun states.
The contests are expected to be highly competitive, given their strategic importance as a dress rehearsal for the 2027 general elections.
Itodo said the conduct of these elections is widely seen as critical to rebuilding or eroding public confidence in the electoral process, noting that a credible outcome could energise voters, while a flawed one could deepen apathy and distrust.
Legislative reforms, he said, remain incomplete. However, proposed amendments to the Electoral Act, expected to culminate in an Electoral Act 2026, include compulsory electronic transmission of results and other measures aimed at improving transparency.
Concerns persist that elections are increasingly being used to consolidate incumbent power rather than reflect voter choice. Since assuming office, the INEC chairman has outlined principles centred on independence, fairness, transparency and inclusivity.
Whether these commitments will translate into practice, Itodo noted, remains a central question.
Among the most significant threats identified is the shrinking of political competition. Induced defections and the weakening of opposition parties, he warned, risk limiting voter choice and discouraging participation.
Itodo cautioned that constricting the political space could tilt Nigeria towards one-party dominance, with serious implications for democratic legitimacy.
Electoral cynicism is also deepening. While interest in voting remains high, many Nigerians believe election outcomes are predetermined. This perception is fuelled by irregularities recorded in recent elections, including disputed polling unit results, failures of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and inconsistencies on the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV). Political defections framed as inevitable paths to victory further reinforce doubts about the power of the ballot.
Security challenges add another layer of risk. Insurgency, banditry, communal violence and separatist tensions continue to overstretch security agencies. Insecurity could suppress voter turnout, limit the deployment of election personnel and disenfranchise voters in conflict-prone areas.
Addressing these challenges, analysts argue, will require coordinated action across institutions and society. A firm and independent INEC is seen as central, particularly in enforcing regulations on party operations, candidate validation and results management.
Citizen vigilance is also considered essential. High voter turnout and active monitoring at polling units are viewed as the strongest deterrents against manipulation, as political actors benefit most when voters stay away.
Equally critical is the role of security agencies. Electoral credibility depends on neutrality and professionalism. The Inter-agency Consultative Committee on Election Security has been urged to adopt a framework rooted in constitutional loyalty rather than partisan interest.
Itodo warned that Nigeria’s trajectory towards 2027 will be shaped by the interaction of these forces, adding that the choices made now will determine whether the country strengthens its democratic foundations or slides further into electoral authoritarianism.
