The battle in 2027 is shaping up. The alignment and realignment of forces are indicative of that. The situation in Rivers, for those who have been following the game, shows a shift in the control of the levers of power in the state. The hunters in the past appear to have become the hunted today. That is akin to a barber’s chair that is never stationary. The sociologist will tell you it is the vicissitude of life.
The amalgamation of astute politicians in the African Democratic Congress (ADC) from different parties would have raised the hope for better days ahead. But the indication that the costly mistake that sank the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in 2023 is about to be replicated gives nothing to cheer.
The ‘tit-for-tat’ politics in Rivers
The political impasse between the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike, and Governor Siminalayi Fubara is entering another stage as Nigeria inches closer to a new round of general elections in 2027.
At the head of the disagreement is political corruption – who gets a better share of the government loot. For the past two years, the two politicians have been at each other’s jugular.
History appears to be on playback. In the 1970s, two prominent politicians from Benue State locked horns over corruption allegations. Joseph Tarka was a prominent Nigerian politician and former minister, while Paul Daboh was a political rival.
At that time, Daboh accused Tarka of corruption, leading to a public scandal where each threatened to reveal incriminating evidence against the other.
At a press conference, Daboh declared, “If you Tarka me, I will Daboh you,” meaning, “If you expose my secrets (Tarka me), I will expose yours (Daboh you). ” It signalled a mutual threat of revealing damaging information, or a ‘tit-for-tat’ of retaliation.
The war of attrition, as it were, between Wike and Fubara has lingered. It seems to be moving into a new stage. And it appears that the governor is now “Fubara-ing” Wike in a most painful way.
There was a time in Rivers State when Wike was effectively in charge. He determined what happened in the Fubara administration. He appointed all the commissioners for the governor and decreed what percentage of the internally generated revenue (IGR) and the FAAC allocation should go to him and how much should be left to run the state.
Those were when Wike and his cronies danced to the rhythm of the song. “As e dey sweet us, e dey pain them,” to the chagrin of Fubara and his camp.
It would seem today that Fubara has been weaned off that excessive and overbearing influence and meddlesomeness.
When Wike called the shots, he determined how Fubara was perceived by the chief occupant of the Aso Rock Presidential Villa and how he was welcomed any time he visited the fortress.
At that time, Fubara was seen as a “rude boy” who was ungrateful to his boss. At that time also, Fubara was always being dragged before the president, not on his own terms, but on the terms of his predecessor.
Each time he appeared in the Aso Rock court, he was instantly found guilty because Wike would have earlier poisoned the mind of the “chief judge” in the Villa. It was this game that earned Fubara six six-month suspension.
But like King Nebuchadnezzar of the old Babylonian kingdom, it would seem that Fubara has regained his wisdom and power after spending six months in a thick forest outside his fiefdom. Today, there seems to be a switch of roles, unconsciously.
Before Fubara went on the forced holiday, when it became very clear to him that his seat was being hijacked by some other persons, he threatened fire and brimstone. He talked tough and even dragged some security chiefs into the fray.
Today, it does appear that the fiendish hold and control Wike exercised over the government in Rivers has begun to crumble before his own eyes. This is happening so fast that the minister is rattled. He is now threatening fire and brimstone himself and seeing everybody as an enemy, including those who invited him into their government to “come and chop” (apologies to the late Sunday Awoniyi).
The position he is currently occupying, where he is actually “chopping”, is the only thing that still confers relevance on him in the present dispensation.
Unlike in the days when Wike danced to his fill whenever he mounted a podium to make a speech or during project commissioning, his popular refrain, “As e dey sweet us, e dey pain you,” may have disappeared.
From the look of things, the sudden turn of events in Rivers’ politics “dey pain Wike as e dey sweet Fubara” now.
If you visit Port Harcourt, the seat of power in Rivers State today, the music has changed. All you will hear around the Government House and everywhere the governor goes to perform official functions is a deliberately crafted song meant to taunt those who had traduced him in time past, hiding under the support and protection of President Bola Tinubu.
Fubara seems to have purchased his freedom and can now decide to visit the nation’s Number One citizen without being held by the hand or led by the nose. Things have changed; the sound of the music we hear from Port Harcourt suggests a ‘counterpose’.
The lyric creates an impression that even Wike’s claim of being loyal to President Tinubu may not be genuine after all. Here it goes, “If you de follow Tinubu, make you no follow corner corner. Siminalayi, tell me, if you de follow the president, why do you no follow corner corner?”
The Fubara camp appears to be effectively in charge in Rivers at the moment. Despite the recent local government tours by Wike, what is obvious is that the power pendulum has shifted, and despite the crowd that massed to welcome him, Wike knows too well that, for him, all is now “Ichabod!”
He has cried out that he would not allow himself to be run out of political relevance. Today, he is not yet a member of the All Progressives Congress (APC), and this, too, he has, accordingly, been lately reminded of by the leadership of the party.
If he joins tomorrow, he queues behind Fubara, who is the recognised leader of the party in the state. And if he decides to remain in the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) that he has destroyed, he would seriously be “OHO” (on his own). If that happens, he would no longer muster the ground-swelling support he used to enjoy by cronies and hangers-on who sing his praise because of the “stomach infrastructure” (apologies, Ayo Fayose) he dishes out to them.
Governor Fubara told his people recently that he was more APC than Wike.
“Today, I am very happy. I am not just a member of the All Progressives Congress; I am the Number One. I have collected my card, and the form is 0001,” he said.
Meanwhile, it seems that the noose is being tightened around his neck, politically. It appears it is only the president that still believes in the man called Wike; other party bigwigs “have seen him finish”, as it is being said in Pidgin parlance.
In the event that he is relieved of the ministerial post he is occupying, he would then be reduced to an empty shell, and that is when his real calamity would begin.
If you ask me, and if I were in his shoes, I would tread softly. But who knows if he is acting on an unbroken agreement he entered into with the president or under a blood covenant that grants him immunity and shields him from ignominious treatment no matter how detrimental his actions may be proving to the government of the day?
What cannot be denied by every cautious observer is that the centre can no longer hold for Wike, neither in Rivers nor in Abuja.
Fubara tried to capture the mood of his estranged godfather when he told his supporters, “Make una no allow anybody deceive you. They can come to the media and dance; when they go behind, they cry. It is the truth. We don’t know how to dance. We say it the way it is and stand tall.”
The hunter seems to have become the hunted. How the cookies crumble!
Will Atiku play the same card as in 2023?
Unless it was aimed to confuse the opposition camp, the release on Tuesday by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, now a member of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), to the effect that he would not step down for anybody in his quest to contest the presidential ticket of the party may have given an indication of a fresh crisis brewing in the ADC.
Peter Obi, presidential candidate of the Labour Party in 2023, had, last week, defected to the ADC. The thinking among political analysts was that for Obi to have taken that bold step, there must have been an internal agreement ahead of the primaries on who would become what.
Permutations have been rife that the best bet for the coalition would be to field Peter Obi as the flag bearer, while Aminu Tambuwal or Rabiu Kwankwaso run along with Obi. That way, the party would be said to be seriously in the race.
The thinking is that Atiku should, at this time, openly play the role of a kingmaker and not present himself to be made a king.
The thinking, also by some analysts, is that Atiku should allow a southerner to contest since the slot still remains in the South, and with Obi pledging to run for only one term of four years, then when next it goes to the North, Atiku can effortlessly contest.
Coming out this early to announce that the ticket is thrown open without zoning will not only create confusion in the party but also make people switch off whatever support and hope they may have built for and around the ADC.
The events of 2023 are still fresh in the minds of many Nigerians. Atiku had in 2022 insisted on contesting the primaries, and he got the leadership of the PDP to throw open the ticket despite the fact that the APC had zoned it to the south. The cyclical crises of the PDP since 2023 can be easily traced to that human error.
If the former vice president is still holding tight to that ambition this time around, he might simply be putting flesh to the skeletal allegation by some analysts that the Adamawa-born politician may be stylishly working for another party.
In a statement released on Tuesday by Paul Ibe, his media adviser, Atiku stated, among other things, that “The ADC has consistently affirmed its commitment to an open, transparent, and competitive process for selecting its flagbearer. APC proxies and external meddlers have no standing to intimidate, blackmail, or sabotage this democratic resolve.
“…When the time comes, all qualified aspirants will present themselves freely. No one is stepping down…”
While the astute politician may be right in saying that all presidential aspirants would go through the selection process, he may have lost sight of the fact that it was the same faulty step that dealt the PDP the unkindest cut in 2022, which it has been nursing till date.
What many observers were thinking was that by now the apparatchiks in the ADC should have, among themselves, settled the issue of who flies the party’s presidential flag in 2027. And if the motivation for congregating in ADC is to “rescue” Nigeria as they claim, the self must, therefore, die!
The ADC must understand that the extent to which it would retain or lose supporters after its presidential primary would depend on whoever emerges as its candidate. If a wrong person, in the eyes of Nigerians, emerges, it would mean, “To your tents, O Israel.”
