Nigeria’s agricultural performance in 2026 depends on the federal government’s commitment to addressing fundamental issues that have continued to impact farmers’ productivity and the sector’s contribution to gross domestic product (GDP).
As a result, BusinessDay spoke with experts who shed light on focal points that the government can leverage to cultivate a thriving agricultural environment.
The experts noted that Nigeria’s agriculture will grow if a concerted effort is made to stem insecurity, incentivize farmers, encourage year-round production, spur private sector leadership and involvement, and provide subsidies on all inputs, among others.
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Subsidize inputs for farmers
High input costs and falling farm-gate prices of produce have left farmers reeling, threatening both food security and their return on investment.
The country’s output of key staples declined in 2025 as farmers faced pressure from rising input costs, which eroded their profits.
Nigeria is dependent on cheap imports to fill the supply and demand gaps. A total of N3.34 trillion food products were imported into the country from January through September in 2025, indicating a 23 percent rise when compared to N2.7 trillion in the corresponding period of 2024, data from the National Bureau of Statistics trade report has shown.
The All Farmers Association’s president has said that the country will boost its agriculture’s output and growth if the government can work around providing subsidies on all inputs, especially fertilisers, in the short term for farmers.
“We do not want food prices to go up, but we must also ensure that farmers can sustain production,” Bello said in response to questions while urging the government to subsidise inputs and tackle rising insecurity to make farming profitable for farmers.
“Nigerian farmers are competing unfairly with subsidized food from importing countries, resulting in loss of jobs and productivity in the agricultural sector,” he noted.
Address worsening insecurity
Climate change has been altering and disrupting the farming cycle in the country for the past three years.
Erratic rainfall, flooding, droughts and longer dry spells have made farming more uncertain in Nigeria.
The situation has also led to the loss of billions of naira worth of investments in major staples, especially in the northern region, where the bulk of the country’s food crops are cultivated.
Owing to the worsening impacts of climate change, flooding and droughts have now become a yearly occurrence in Africa’s most populous country since 2018.
Data from the International Disaster Database shows that a total of 21.9 million people were severely affected by the country’s worst climate change impact in 2022, which caused 603 deaths and $4.2 million (N1.6 billion, using the 2022 average exchange rate) in total damage.
“Extreme weather events are occurring more frequently and this is greatly impacting food production,” Jude Obi, president of the Association of Organic Agriculture Practitioners of Nigeria, says in a response to questions.
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Encourage all-year production
Experts have said that irrigation facilities are about all that is needed for all-year-round farming in the country.
The country has seen its food production decline yearly, causing shortages and shrinking farmers’ income. The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) forecasts that by the year 2050, global water requirements for agriculture will increase by 50 percent.
To feed Nigeria’s ever-growing population and improve its foreign earnings in agriculture, the government needs to both encourage and provide the enabling environment for its farmers to adopt irrigation systems as a means to boost resilience and sustainable crop production.
“To restore Nigeria’s glory and dignity, we need to roll up our sleeves and embark on sustainable innovation and serious knowledge-driven agricultural production,” Ibrahim Kabir, national president of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria, said.
Promote private sector-led agriculture
According to the FAO, Africa’s food market is estimated to grow to $1 trillion by 2030 and it needs the catalytic intervention of the private sector to bring it to fruition.
To achieve and surpass this growth, the international agency says all actors in the agribusiness space must play their part, with the private sector being an indispensable actor.
“The government should encourage the private sector to drive Nigeria’s agriculture by strictly providing the enabling environment for sustainable agribusiness,” Ibrahim Kabir, former AFAN president, said.
Drive mechanisation
Globally, innovations and mechanisation are positively impacting crop production as farmers deploy farm machines, tractors, and drones to aid farming, as well as Artificial Intelligence among others.
But Nigeria is grossly lacking in the adoption of new technologies and most of its farms still lack tractors and mechanised machines to support farming activities.
Experts project that full mechanisation of agric processes, deployment of STI (science, technology, and innovation), knowledge-based agricultural production, as well as embracing agribusiness and agricultural biotechnology, will help scale productivity in the medium and long term.
