Anibor Kragha, the executive secretary of the African Refiners and Distributors Association (ARDA), Anibor Kragha, has said that Africa will need at least six more refineries of the scale of the Dangote Refinery to meet the continent’s rapidly growing energy demands and ensure energy security.
Speaking at a Crude Oil Refinery-Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) event on Tuesday, Kragha emphasised that while Africa’s upstream oil production is expanding, investment in downstream refining capacity has lagged far behind — a gap that could threaten the continent’s energy independence in the coming decades.
“The Dangote Refinery is a major step forward for Africa, but it is not enough,” Kragha said. “To meet projected demand growth of 45–55% by 2040, Africa will require at least six more refineries of similar scale, alongside stronger storage and distribution infrastructure.”
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Kragha highlighted that Africa currently consumes about 5.3 million barrels of petroleum products daily, yet the continent imports up to 60 percent of that volume, due to insufficient refining capacity.
While major oil discoveries are being made in countries such as Namibia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, he warned that “you can’t have energy security if your downstream investments don’t match upstream growth.”
He noted that with Africa’s population expected to double by 2050 — when one in four people in the world will be African — the need for domestic energy production and refining is urgent. Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Egypt alone are projected to be among the world’s top ten most populous nations by mid-century.
Beyond refining, Kragha called for greater focus on petrochemicals, cleaner transport and cooking fuels, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) — all of which he described as key to Africa’s industrial and environmental future.
“Refining is essential, but true value addition lies in petrochemicals,” he said. “Africa spends over $2 billion annually importing petrochemical products that we could produce locally. Every item — even your nail polish — is petrochemical-based.”
Kragha also underscored the continent’s weak energy infrastructure, revealing that Africa’s total pipeline network is just 8,150 kilometers, barely exceeding the U.S. Colonial Pipeline’s 7,000 km stretch from Georgia to New York — yet the U.S. system moves more product than all of Africa combined.
To attract more investment, ARDA is urging African governments to implement stable, long-term regulatory policiesthat extend beyond election cycles, as well as mechanisms to de-risk energy investments. He also encouraged regional collaboration to create economies of scale and integrated energy markets.
Kragha further warned that Africa’s limited fuel storage capacity makes it vulnerable to supply disruptions. “A few months ago, I wrote that if Africa stopped importing fuel for just 30 days, many countries would face severe shortages,” he said.
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Kragha reaffirmed ARDA’s commitment to championing investments across Africa’s entire energy value chain — from refining to distribution, storage, and cleaner fuel technologies.
“Energy security is non-negotiable,” he said. “If we want to make Africa great again, we must build, refine, and power Africa with African energy.”
