Lagos guber primary: Is Abuja’s confidence in Tinubu waning?

That Governor Akinwunmi Ambode has determined to put his whole strength to ensure he retains his seat beyond May 29, 2019 is not in question; that in doing so, he has decided to bite anything in sight without minding the part of the body, is also not in doubt, what is in doubt is the level of confidence Abuja still reposes in the National Leader of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
Observers say that recent developments surrounding the gubernatorial primary in Lagos State may have put Tinubu at loggerheads with the powers that be in Abuja.
Permutations heightened yesterday over the state of relationship between Aso Rock and Bourdillon in Lagos, when against all expectations, the Chairman of the Lagos State Election Monitoring Committee, Clement Ebri, unilaterally cancelled an earlier primary, the result of which had already flooded the social media; declaring it null and void. The monitoring team went ahead to conduct another election in the evening of yesterday, a development that elicited variegated insinuations.
Before yesterday, the election had become an issue, pitching Ambode against Tinubu. Months to the primaries, the camp of the governor had become so quiet over the approaching poll. Those close to Ambode had said that the governor had not received the green light from his political godfather to throw his hat into the ring.
It was to emerge later that the state chapter of the party had anointed another aspirant to do battle with the incumbent Ambode. Many Lagosians, particularly, sympathizers of the governor, were flabbergasted and miffed at the development. But Tinubu remained silent.
From the blues emerged Babajide Sanwo-Olu, a former commissioner for Establishment, Training and Pensions, and former managing director, Lagos State Property Development Corporation (LSPDC). Like a piece of magnet, he started attracting supporters and endorsements here and there.
Initially, Ambode was treating the issue as a featherweight matter. He severally dismissed reports about moves to replace him as rumours and claimed that his relationship with Tinubu was still intact.
But it was to dawn on him that the sudden conglomeration of “foes” against him was actually the hand of “Esau but voice of Jacob”.
Even at that, he did not want to declare outright war against the kingmaker in Lagos, hence his recent “kurukere” movement to plant himself besides Tinubu in a group photograph at the public presentation of a book authored by Jim Ovia, founder of Zenith Bank Plc.
Then, several meetings were held; Ambode sent many emissaries to the godfather and there were no rapprochement; he decided to seek the intervention of Abuja. Several meetings were held in Aso Rock. The willingness of Abuja to intervene in the impasse, sources say, was responsible for the several postponements the primary suffered.
Last Saturday, Tinubu was said to have come out fiercely, endorsing Sanwo-Olu, which infuriated the governor.
Ambode decided to go for a broke the next day, declaring a full-scale war at a world Press Conference at the seat of power in Alausa, Ikeja. He fired from all cylinders, even though analysts have since described the vituperations as unnecessary.
The primary that was originally billed for Sunday, September 30 was moved to Monday. It was moved again to Tuesday. And at the time is going to press, information about the primary was hazy as those detailed to conduct the exercise began to stammer up till about 4.30pm.
The foot-dragging and general body language of the team from Abuja raised a lot of questions, including whose interest they were out to protect.
An analyst, who spoke with BusinessDay shortly after the Ebri-led NWC team disclaimed the earlier figures that were being bandied online as the result of the primary, alleged that the governor may have compromised the monitoring committee.
But then, some of the questions begging for answers are: Can the team manipulate the outcome of the primary without orders from above? Is it possible for the team to have unilaterally cancelled the earlier election without the buy-in of Abuja? If Abuja gave consent, does it then mean that Abuja may have rated Ambode more highly and of being more important and relevant to its electoral success as was in the days of Babatunde Fashola? Does it mean that placed side by side today, in the larger interest of the party, Abuja prefers Ambode now to Tinubu?
Again, if for any reason Ambode fails to clinch the ticket, and it is established that Abuja wanted to get rid of Tinubu using Ambode, wouldn’t that prove costly for Abuja? If on the other hand something happens in a reverse manner, Ambode fails after the monitoring team’s “unclear decisions”, would that not restrain Tinubu from giving his full support to Abuja? Just endless questions!
Observers strongly believe that there must be some power play between Tinubu and Abuja over Ambode, and that the influence of the former governor of Lagos State may be waning.
For some time now, there have been permutations over whether Tinubu would put in as much efforts as he did in 2015 to ensure the emergence of Muhammadu Buhari as president in 2019.
At a point, those very close to Tinubu said he may be supporting Buhari with his “eyes wide open”. It is said that the former governor of Lagos State decided to take that route because it would be more beneficial to allow Buhari complete four more years and leave the stage than to allow a fresh person from the north to come in and spend eight years, which could affect the chances of the south.
A source said: “Asiwaju is not a neophyte in politics. He weighs his options and makes moves that he knows he will not regret. There are ‘bad bellies’ who are not comfortable with his profile and they want to badmouth him before the President. They have not got the political sagacity to galvanise a support base that can give the President victory next time around.
“They have done a lot to bite the finger that fed them. Without Tinubu, many of them wouldn’t be in politics let alone amounting to anything in the country. I want to tell you as a matter of fact that Asiwaju remains as relevant to the electoral success of President Buhari as he was in 2015, and the President knows it and he would decide to toy with his relationship with Asiwaju to his own hurt. Politics is not all about trailer-load of money. If you don’t know the strategy, you go home in regret after an election because you find out that after spending the money you still did not make any impact. Asiwaju knows how to wisely deploy experience, men and money to achieve success. That is why the President must court his friendship, at least for now.”
Recall that the relationship between Buhari and Tinubu had been everything but rosy until late last year. Shortly after the inauguration of the Buhari administration in 2015, the President went solo, abandoning those who made his victory possible.
Then Buhari began to ride roughshod, picking all manner of people from his native state of Katsina and his close associates, to work with, leaving in the cold those who spent their time and resources to enthrone him in Aso Rock.
Aisha Buhari sensed the ugly state of affairs and spoke out and up against the injustice. She noted that those who never sowed into the party were the ones reaping heavily, whereas those who laboured have been pushed away in harvest time.
Loyalists of Tinubu had also at the time listed some hostile actions against the former governor. Some of the issues raised include the exclusion of Tinubu’s candidates from Buhari’s final ministerial list, the alleged gang-up against his candidate, James Faleke, in the Kogi governorship election, who was the late Audu Abubakar’s running mate, and the alleged fraud against Olusegun Abraham, his candidate, in the Ondo governorship primary.
It was said that Tinubu lost out during the appointment of political office holders, members of the Federal Executive Council inclusive. This, according to observers, was part of the Buhari administration’s plot to build a new power base, detached from Tinubu’s stranglehold.
While in Akure, Ondo State in November 2017, Tinubu had declared that there was no automatic ticket for Buhari in 2019. At that time, Tinubu’s next movement with APC and Buhari was unknown. Shortly after that, he began to seek out old friends and acquaintances in the Afenifere, pan-Yoruba socio-cultural group. He went to greet the leader of the group, Pa. Reuben Fasonranti.
He came heavily on some APC governors who had endorsed President Buhari for second term, saying that whoever would represent the party must be selected through a transparent primary election.
He had insisted that the party would not violate its law to grant Buhari automatic ticket. Condemning governors who had already publicly endorsed President Buhari for 2019, Tinubu said the governors lacked the power to do so, as such action contravened the APC constitution.
“No governor can appropriate the power of endorsement to themselves,” he said.
But on October 30, 2017 the President met with Tinubu at the Presidential Villa. The meeting sparked controversy among Nigerians, with many saying that it is just a ploy to curry Tinubu’s favour as election year is drawing near and the credibility of the party is waning.
Tinubu announced to the whole world, “I just met with the President. Our discussion was fruitful, productive and it was about the country and leadership as a whole.”
Since after the October rapprochement, things appear to be going for both party men.
In the spirit of the rapprochement, the President had moved his seat from Abuja and relocated to Lagos just to please Tinubu. He was the chairman of the 10th Colloquium to commemorate the 66th birthday of Asiwaju. The belief out there is that the President must have used the occasion of the visit to sandpaper some rough edges of their relationship as he spent extra day after the event.
But what is happening currently appears to suggest that there may have been a shift somehow. The days ahead will tell where Tinubu and Abuja’s relationship is headed.
 
Zebulon Agomuo