The gale of defections that hit the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the perceived threat it poses to the 2019 reelection ambition of President Muhammadu Buhari is increasingly becoming real as the political gladiators with real influence across the states have abandoned the APC and Buhari.
Pundits suggested that the defections will serve as the death knell on Buhari in 2019 as the states, where he had maintained his traditional electoral stronghold are also swinging away from him because the political forces that guaranteed victory for him in the 2015 election are fast turning against him for what one political analyst described as his “unbelievable level of incompetence which let even the masses that backed him all these years down.”
Buhari’s former allies started the defections in earnest on Tuesday July 24 in the National Assembly when 37 members of the House of Representatives and 14 Senators left the ruling party for the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
Then came the defection of Governor of Benue State Samuel Ortom two days later, followed by Tuesdays’ defection of the President of the Senate, Bukola Saraki, Kwara State Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed, and in quick succession, the Governor of Sokoto State, Waziri Tambuwal also announced his defection from the APC on Wednesday hours after the National Publicity Secretary of the APC, Bolaji Abdullahi, dumped the APC. The Nigerian High Commissioner to South Africa, Ahmed Ibeto had on Tuesday also left the APC as well as the Deputy Governor of Kano State, Hafizu Abubakar .
Reacting to the gale of defections a political analyst, Katch Ononuju, told BusinessDay on Wednesday that the most dynamic of the defections was that of the Sokoto State Governor, which he said signifies the end for Buhari, stressing that the political and religious bastion of the Fulani Caliphate has also abandoned Buhari. He also suggested that Buhari may opt out of the presidential race to avoid the humiliation of defeat that is so certain.
“Now we have gotten the Fulani against him (Buhari) by Sokoto Governor defecting. You will now see a real implosion. Kano is gone too because Ibrahim Shekarau has been appealed to allow a working arrangement with Rabiu Musa Kwankwanso and with that now done, they have now broken away and don’t forget the Amir of Kano is with them. So you have Kano the political and Kano the spiritual and the Deputy Governor has joined them. Kaduna has also left Buhari. It is also possible Buhari may not run to avoid humiliation in the polls,’’ he said.
When asked about the South West which appears to be for APC, Ononuju said the South west will fail Buhari stressing that the national leader of the APC and South West political giant, Ahmed Bola Tinubu is not making serious efforts to ensure Buhari’s reelection apart from making his faction of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) faction of the APC to take control of the ruling party.
In its reaction the PDP while welcoming Governor Tambuwal and others, noted in a statement on Wednesday that the return of Governor Tambuwal, Senate President Bukola Saraki, Benue state Governor Samuel Ortom, Kwara state Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed and Kano State Deputy Governor, Hafizu Abubakar in addition to scores of federal legislators to the party, reflects the wishes and aspirations of Nigerians across board, who are now resurging to the repositioned PDP as the only vehicle to rescue our nation from the mis-governance of the APC.
“Indeed, the patriotic action of these leaders and their supporters has given Nigerians a renewed hope of returning our nation to the path of national cohesion, peace and economic prosperity that has eluded her in the last three years of the incompetent administration of President Muhammadu Buhari and the dysfunctional All Progressives Congress (APC),” the party said.
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The PDP also noted that the coming weeks will witness the influx of more APC governors, federal legislators, other elected and appointed officials at very high levels, into the repositioned PDP.
Analysts and stakeholders said further that with defection of Tambuwal and Rabiu Kwankwaso from the North West, Buhari and APC stronghold are facing imminent electoral defeat because the duo made Buhari and APC victory in the region in 2015 possible and their defection will make his reelection impossible in the region.
Also speaking to BusinessDay, Abdul Majeeb Coordinator National Movement for Good Governance and a Kano based political activist asserted as one of the foot soldiers of Buhari and APC in the North he can conclude that APC is dead and buried with defection in the area.
He said, ” Now that Kwankwaso is no longer in APC the party and Buhari cannot win Kano and Kano is the state that determines ones victory because of its voting capacity. The same thing in Sokoto where Tambuwal has left”.
Aondoakaa Yayoo a party Chieftain from North Central observed that the defections of Governor Samuel Ortom and Senate President Saraki from APC to PDP means the ruling party and Buhari will lose the zone in the next round of elections.
He argued that, ” how can APC and Buhari win Benue and Kwara when Ortom and Saraki are in PDP? How can they win Kano and Sokoto when Kwankwaso and Tambuwal are in PDP? It is impossible. APC cannot win, Buhari will be defeated.
But contrary to these permutations, APC said it is neither distracted nor surprised by the defection of Senate President Bukola Saraki, Governors Abdulfatah Ahmed and Aminu Tambuwal of Kwara and Sokoto states, National Publicity Secretary, Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi and others from the party.
In a statement signed by the National Deputy Publicity Secretary, Yekini Nabena, the party said the defectors had the right and freedom to pursue their political ambitions wherever they so desired.
Nabena, who saluted the courage of the defectors to come openly and declare where they belonged, advised Saraki, Ahmed, Tambuwal, Abdullahi and the others to maintain and enjoy the spirit and atmosphere of freedom.
“The defection of Senate President Bukola Saraki; Governors Abdulfatah Ahmed and Aminu Tambuwal of Kwara and Sokoto States; National Publicity Secretary, Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi; and others, to the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) neither surprises nor distracts the All Progressives Congress (APC). Every follower of events in recent times could decipher the signs that foretold the exit of Saraki, Tambuwal, Ahmed, Abdullahi, from our great party.
“We thank them for their contributions to the APC for the period they were with us. We also salute their courage to openly declare where they belong, as we had always advised.
“APC is a party founded and run on the principles of freedom, sincerity, and forthrightness. Saraki and the others have the freedom of association and the right to pursue their political ambitions wherever they deem fit.
“Our advice and hope is that those who have left would also have the courage to inspire in their respective political environments the atmosphere of unencumbered freedom created by the APC, which enabled them to leave without let or hindrance.
“As a party, our attention is on the matter in hand, the 2019 general election. We are united and focused, with an eye to continuation of our winning streak in all elections this year, next year, and beyond. And we will win!
“To our members in Kwara, Sokoto and the other 34 states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), remain steadfast and courageous. Encourage one another in our streets teeming with APC members and supporters from North to South, and East to West,” he said.
Another political commentator, Taiye Odewale, told BusinessDay on Wednesday that “It portends better chances for PDP in the 2019 election. It is a good omen for the main opposition PDP while it is bad omen ruling party, APC,”
Also, the defection of three APC governors to PDP has increased the states under the party’s control from 11 to 14 and reduced the APC’s dominance from 24 to 21 states, even as the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) controls one state.
There is a strong feeling that the nation is likely to witness a repeat of the 2015 general elections where the then governing PDP lost five governors to the then opposition APC and lost the general election.
“Any ruling party has power of incumbency but when a party that is in power is losing members on daily or weekly basis at the eleventh hour to National elections, it is s very bad omen. Because the same thing happened to PDP in 2014 to 2015. And we all saw what happened. So, if APC does not manage the exodus of membership, it may have similar result in February next year,” Odewale added.
In the same token, Olatunbosun Abolarinwa, attributed the wave of defections to inability of the governing party to learn from PDP’s past mistakes.
His words: “APC is sinking, just like PDP did in 2015. But all I hear its henchmen do is grandstand – making empty boasts, rather than admit failure, readjust and make amends.
“APC fails to learn from the mistakes of PDP and they will watch as PDP rebounds and seizes the political space from it. “Unfortunately, the people remain the losers in this intra-class struggle,” he said.
To Niyi Adeagbo, APC chieftain and Chairman, Itesiwaju Local Government Area of Oyo State, the development calls for sober reflection. While stressing that relationships are meant to be managed, he said: “It is not a time to roll out the drums, not at all. It is more of a sober reflection. The memories of our joy and happiness when the nPDP guys joined us lingers on. They are great guys and they stood by us when the war was not won. In the end, we must all belong to somebody”.
But the Minister of Information and Culture, Lai Mohammed, has said the defections particularly that of the President of the Senate Bukola Saraki from the APC will not affect the fortunes of the party in the 2019 general elections
The Minister said this in a statement issued in Abuja on Wednesday, and noted that while the Senate President was a member of the APC, the party did not enjoy the benefit of his membership.
”If Senate President Bukola Saraki were not a member of the APC, the party and the government it leads could not have suffered more than they had already done, with regards to the delay in passing the budget, approving key appointments and so on.
”In other words, Saraki has behaved all along like a member of the opposition, deliberately slowing down the progress of the APC-led federal government. If we didn’t gain by having our member as Senate President, we stand to lose nothing by losing him.
”It is therefore neither a surprise nor a blow that he has defected. Perhaps the only surprise is that when he eventually defected, it was a mere whimper!” he said.
Mohammed further emphasized that as far as Kwara State is concerned, the APC can only be stronger in the state by not having double agents and fifth columnists as members.
He said this is why the true APC members in the state have come together to strengthen the party, open its doors to new members and reposition it for the 2019 elections, with a view to delivering Kwara to President Muhammadu Buhari.
”This was what we did this past weekend, and the whole country saw the way the people reacted. Yet, what happened at the weekend was not even a rally. It was a consultative stakeholders’ meeting. And it was a defining moment for the millions of Kwarans seeking political emancipation and direction.
”Thankfully, the national leadership of our party has hearkened to our demands by dissolving the Kwara State Executive Committee and constituting a caretaker committee. This offers a fresh start for the APC in Kwara,” the Minister said.
”No one tree, no matter how big, can make a forest. Every Kwaran is important in the emerging political dispensation in the state, and it is the realization of this new dawn that has set the state agog for the APC,” he said.
